CIUDAD DE MÉXICO.— El Banco de México (Banxico) estimó que este 2020 se perderán al menos 800 mil empleos en la economía, aunque la cifra podría elevarse hasta un millón 400 mil plazas desaparecidas.
- En su Informe Trimestral, el banco central corrigió su expectativa de empleo para este año, que hasta antes de la pandemia anticipaba una creación de entre 440 y 540 mil nuevos trabajos para este año, y 470 a 570 mil en 2021.
De acuerdo con El Financiero, el Banxico prevé que el próximo año tampoco será el mejor. Su previsión pesimista es que en 2021 se pierdan otros 200 mil empleos adicionales y, en el mejor escenario, que se puedan abrir apenas 400 mil, un monto lejano para recuperar las pérdidas de trabajos esperados para este año.
Por otra parte, el Banco de México también recortó este miércoles su pronóstico de crecimiento para el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB); pero no publicó un solo escenario, en su lugar identificó tres, debido a la incertidumbre por la pandemia de Covid-19.
En el mejor escenario, la economía nacional se contraerá 4.6 por ciento en 2020, su peor caída desde la crisis mundial de 2009. En el peor, la contracción será de 8.8 por ciento, un nivel no registrado desde 1932, cuando bajó más de 14 por ciento. También se identificó otro escenario en donde habría una reducción de 8.3 por ciento.
Entre los principales riesgos para la economía, el banco central señaló que estos se relacionan con la posibilidad de que se prolonguen las medidas de distanciamiento social o sean más estrictas; episodios adicionales de volatilidad financiera; que las medidas de apoyo adoptadas no sean efectivas.
También prevé que las secuelas causadas por la pandemia sobre la economía sean más permanentes; además de que haya reducciones adicionales en la calificación de la deuda soberana y de Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex); y la mayor debilidad de los componentes de la demanda agregada.
Los factores que podrían crear un mejor escenario para la economía nacional se relacionan con una contención efectiva de la propagación del Covid-19; que los estímulos otorgados sean efectivos para apoyar la recuperación de la economía; y que la entrada en vigor del Tratado México, Estados Unidos, Canadá (T-MEC) propicie una inversión mayor a la esperada.
#EnEsteMomento La Junta de Gobierno del #BancodeMéxico presenta el #InformeTrimestralBanxico (enero- marzo 2020). Consulta el documento en: https://t.co/QxcIHu3aRR pic.twitter.com/nG4g7kNUUR
— Banco de México (@Banxico) May 27, 2020
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The post México podría perder hasta 1.4 millones de plazas laborales: Banxico appeared first on Almomento | Noticias, información nacional e internacional.
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