CIUDAD DE MÉXICO.— La agencia calificadora Fitch Ratings estimó que la economía de México caerá 7.4 por ciento este 2020 y la recuperación en 2021 será de 3.2 por ciento, en un contexto donde las consecuencias económicas de la crisis derivada de la emergencia sanitaria por Covid-19 continúan ampliándose y profundizándose.
- Para la economía mundial, la calificadora destacó que las proyecciones apuntan a una caída del PIB de 4.6 por ciento en 2020, superior a la estimada en abril pasado de 3.9 por ciento.
La agencia señaló que los niveles de actividad económica mundial deberían comenzar a aumentar en los próximos meses, siempre que se evite un fuerte resurgimiento en los casos de Covid-19, una vez que se relajen los bloqueos para frenar la pandemia; sin embargo, llevarán mucho tiempo volver a la normalidad.
#Economía 💰| Baja Fitch Ratings su pronóstico económico para México 🇲🇽 con una contracción del -7.4%
La calificadora realizó un ajuste a su previsión económica para 2020, en la que pronostica una caída del -7.4% en la economía mexicana.#LoViEnTV4 pic.twitter.com/stEKcOnwfi
— TV4 📺📱💻 (@tv4guanajuato) May 26, 2020
Fitch resaltó que “la enorme magnitud del shock relacionado con el bloqueo a la actividad global ha comenzado a revelarse en datos macroeconómicos duros”. Afirmó que no menos de 17 de los 20 países que da seguimiento “han reportado, o se espera que informen, contracciones económicas en el primer trimestre de 2020 (1T20) y todos, excepto China, verán una caída del PIB en el segundo trimestre (2T20)”.
“Fitch estima que el PIB mundial cayó 3.4 por ciento intertrimestral en el 1T20 y pronostica que disminuirá un 5.8 por ciento en el 2T20, cifras simplemente inimaginables antes de la pandemia. La recesión mundial de este año será más del doble de severa que en 2009”, señaló la calificadora.
De las 20 naciones analizadas por la calificadora, México ocupa el quinto puesto, solo por detrás de España, Italia, Francia y Reino Unido, quienes verán contracciones de más del 7.8 por ciento en sus economías para este año.
Fitch Ratings anunció que prevé una contracción del 7.4% para la economía de México durante este 2020; nuestro país está entre las cinco naciones que verán contracción este año. https://t.co/iFCcsOkJcm pic.twitter.com/y3NhUddk1j
— POLÍTICO México (@politicomx) May 26, 2020
Sin embargo, Fitch Raiting señaló que hay señales de que la caída en la actividad económica está tocando fondo, pues Francia e Italia comenzaron a levantar los bloqueo y esto ha coincidido con un repunte en la visitas minoristas, al tiempo de que indicadores de confianza en Estados Unidos han aumentado.
Aclaró que si bien estas señales son preliminares, la experiencia de China apunta a la probabilidad de que la actividad económica aumente después de que se levanten los bloqueos. No obstante, apuntó, el camino de regreso a los niveles de actividad previos a las crisis se prolongará, con pérdidas de empleos y quiebras que contribuirán a tener daños duraderos tanto en la demanda, como en la oferta.
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The post Fitch prevé contracción de 7.4% de la economía mexicana appeared first on Almomento | Noticias, información nacional e internacional.
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