CIUDAD DE MÉXICO, 1 de julio (AlmomentoMX).- La Junta de Gobierno del Banco de México mantuvo por mayoría la tasa de interés objetivo en 8.25%, con un voto en contra que prefería una baja de 25 (pb) en la tasa de referencia, señala el análisis económico semanal elaborado por el área de Inversiones de Sura Asset Management México.
En el entorno externo, la autoridad monetaria menciona que en el segundo trimestre del año la economía mundial se desaceleró, tanto por el desempeño de las economías desarrolladas como emergentes.
En las economías desarrolladas la inflación general y la subyacente se han mantenido en niveles reducidos. Esto ha fortalecido la expectativa de que los bancos centrales de las principales economías adoptarán posturas monetarias más acomodaticias.
Los riesgos existentes para BANXICO son: i) escalamiento de las tensiones de algunas economías desarrolladas ii) nuevos episodios de volatilidad financiera y iii) riesgos geopolíticos.
En cuanto a México, BANXICO hace mención que desde la última reunión de política monetaria los mercados financieros mostraron volatilidad ante la amenaza de la imposición de aranceles a las importaciones de productos mexicanos por parte de EE.UU., así como de las revisiones a la perspectiva o calificación de la deuda soberana y de PEMEX por parte de algunas agencias calificadoras.
El INEGI reportó que durante abril las ventas al menudeo registraron un crecimiento mensual de (0.7%), luego de que en marzo presentaron una baja de (-0.2%) mensual. En su comparativa anual las ventas crecieron (2.1%) anual y en el periodo enero abril un crecimiento de (2.1%) anual. Por otro lado, la tasa de desempleo se ubicó en (3.5%), mismo nivel que en abril y por arriba del (3.2%) en mayo de 2018.
El INEGI reportó que en la primera quincena de junio la inflación fue de (0.01%). De este modo, la tasa anual se ubica en (4.00%) desde (4.13%) en la segunda quincena de mayo. El índice subyacente registró un incremento quincenal de (0.16%), con lo cual la tasa anual se ubica en (3.87%) contra (3.78%).
La producción de petróleo en mayo fue de 1,663 mil barriles diarios, presentando una disminución de 10% en la comparación anual y de 0.7% con respecto al mes inmediato anterior. En lo que va del año la producción fue de 1,670 mil barriles diarios, lo que representa una disminución de 10.7% año contra año, lo cual es 6.3% menor al presupuesto actualizado del gobierno para 2019.
¿Cómo reaccionaron los mercados?
Renta Variable: En la semana que acaba de concluir, los índices accionarios alrededor del mundo presentaron un comportamiento mixto. De estos, los que sobre salen son: DAX (0.50%), FTSE (0.35%), CAC (0.35%), EURO STOXX (0.29%), NIKKEI (0.08%), IBEX (-0.19%), HANG SENG (-0.36%), DOW (-0.51%), NASDAQ (-0.56%), S&P (-0.62%), SHANGHAI (-0.77%), BOVESPA (-0.97%). En los mercados desarrollados el S&P presenta nuevamente una elevada valuación ante el repunte que ha registrado en las semanas recientes descontando un posible recorte en la tasa de la Reserva Federal. El múltiplo FV/EBITDA del S&P 500 se ubica actualmente en 13.3 veces, 25% por encima de su promedio de los últimos 14 años. El consenso de los analistas para el S&P es de 2,900 puntos para el 2019, por lo que el potencial de alza adicional se ve muy limitado y el mercado podría ser vulnerable a una corrección. Los mercados asiáticos presentaron un comportamiento negativo afectados por la caída en las expectativas sobre la reunión entre China y EE.UU. en el G20, y la caída de los 3 mayores bancos en China. Los mercados accionarios europeos reaccionan de manera positiva ante los eventos del fin de semana. Algunos integrantes del mercado esperan que por fin llegue a su fin la batalla comercial entre las dos super potencias. En México, el IPC presentó en la semana un rendimiento negativo de (-0.93%), para acumular en el 2019 un desempeño de (3.56%). El mercado accionario local presentó un comportamiento negativo derivado de cifras económicas débiles, así como la posibilidad de que el Congreso de EE.UU. retrase la ratificación del T-MEC, malos datos de producción petrolera y noticias específicas en algunas emisoras como es el caso de las acciones de la firma de infraestructura energética IENOVA que cayeron con a su precio más bajo en más de cuatro meses.
Mercado de Deuda: El bono del tesoro americano a diez años (T10) presentó una caída de 5 (pb) contra el cierre de la semana pasada para operar en niveles de 2.00%. El nerviosismo que prevalece a nivel global sobre el resultado del encuentro este fin de semana entre Trump y Xi Jinping, ha provocado que el apetito por activos menos riesgosos siga vigente. En México, la tasa de Fondeo a un día continúa en 8.25%. En la parte corta de la curva, los CETES a 28 días presentaron una caída de 6 (pb) para cerrar sobre 8.18%. Por otro lado, la parte media de la curva el bono (M10) o (MY29) presentó un incremento de 5 (pb) para cerrar la semana sobre niveles de 7.61%, mientras que en los instrumentos de mayores plazos también se observaron incrementos en las tasas de interés, en donde el bono (NV47) presentó un alza de 5 (pb) a 7.86%. En el caso de los bonos de tasa real, tanto la parte media y como la parte larga de la curva mostraron incrementos, en donde los papeles (UDI22) y (UDI40) cerraron en niveles de 3.40% y 3.55%, respectivamente. El mercado ha empezado a descontar bajas por parte de BANXICO en los próximos meses, sin embargo, el deterioró en las cifras económicas publicadas en la semana ha evitado que veamos un descenso generalizado en las tasas locales.
Divisas: Durante la semana el dólar (DXY) se debilitó (-0.11%) pasando de $96.16 cierre de la semana anterior hasta el $96.06. Por otro lado, el EUR presentó un comportamiento positivo de (0.16%) para cerrar la semana sobre €1.1386 y la GBP se deprecio en torno a (-0.20%) para alcanzar niveles de £1.2716. En cuanto al MXN, éste presentó una depreciación de (0.48%) contra el cierre de la semana anterior, para concluir la operación en niveles de $19.21. La volatilidad en nuestra moneda es detonada por eventos externos e internos. La debilidad del dólar brindó apoyo a nuestra divisa en la semana, sin embargo, algunos de los riesgos señalados en el párrafo de Renta Variable, incidieron de forma negativa en nuestra divisa. Por último, la posición especulativa del peso en Chicago se mantiene a favor del peso al ubicarse el 18 de junio en $3,058 MM de dólares contra $2,649 MM de dólares de la semana anterior.
Materias Primas: El precio del petróleo (WTI) registró un comportamiento positivo durante la semana de (3.24%) para cerrar la semana sobre niveles de USD$59.38. El precio del petróleo presentó incrementos debido a dos factores. El primero la disminución mayor a la esperada de los inventarios de petróleo en EE.UU. y el segundo la creciente confrontación entre EE.UU. e Irán. El precio del oro presentó un incremento de (1.33%) contra el cierre de la semana anterior para concluir las operaciones en $1,414.55. El precio del oro alcanzó su nivel más alto desde 2013. La expectativa de que la Reserva Federal recorte su tasa de interés a corto plazo, lo cual ha generado debilidad en el dólar estadounidense, así como, las crecientes tensiones comerciales entre EE.UU. y China han apoyado al precio del oro en las semanas recientes.
AM.MX/fm
The post Banxico. Mantiene sus tasas de interés: SURA appeared first on Almomento.Mx.
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